@szewc_daniel | Korwinizm
In late June, the United States army was prepared to strike back at the Islamic Republic of Iran after the Revolutionary Guard shot down an American drone. Minutes before the American retaliation, President Trump is said to have decided against an attack, after learning that as many as 150 people would potentially die as a direct.
But this weekends firefight is a completely different story. Hezbollah – whether provoked or not – is being unquestionably aggressive toward Israel, the U.S.’s main ally in the area, one with considerable support for Donald Trump himself. The Iranian revolutionary guard, most likely at least partly responsible for coordinating the attack, is known for supporting organizations such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as the PMF in Iraq.
An unpredictable force
Despite officially being subject to the government of Iran, the religiously extremist Revolutionary Guard is de facto independent of the relatively “moderate” cabinet of Hassan Rouhani. This is problematic to the degree that for the international community to recognize the Iranian army’s commander in chief, Hossein Salami, as the true leader of the country, the army would have to at least claim this role, which it does not.
However, if the Iranian government would recognize their lack of real power over their own territory, then this could lead to a complete societal destabilization, as well as potentially a civil war. These two nightmare scenarios are in the middle of what is essentially a political standstill. Salami himself has been quoted saying that Iran would destroy Israel and the United States.
Because of this peculiarity of Iran’s power structure, any kind of escalation may become unmanageable. One can only imagine that Hezbollah under the Revolutionary Guard’s supervision would attack American positions whilst talks between Rouhani and Trump were happening without the former’s knowledge if such negotiations were to ever take place. Therefore, the age-old question arises: Cui bono? (For whose benefit?) Who could possibly gain from a war of no return for both the USA and Iran? This is precisely where the Middle Kingdom steps in.
The hidden player
For centuries, China has been the largest and most prosperous empire in the world, gifted by talented people and a culture of hard work. Through their meritocratic societal structure, China’s role as the junior partner to global trade is far below their true ambitions and abilities. During the last decade, China has grown from having a GDP lower than that of sub-Saharan Africa to one of the top in the world.
Time is working in China’s favor too. exemplified by its GDP growth, which is two to three times larger than that of the USA. For China to overtake the USA, there is nothing better than to wait as the US economy falters, because currently, all other factors are working in their advantage.
Iran has a love-hate relationship with China, caused by a common enemy: “The great Satan” – USA. As Lord Palmerston had said about England in the past, countries do not have perpetual friendships, but interests. Precisely because of this reason, it is a likely scenario that China is leading Iran towards war with the USA, to deal the final blow towards the power it is rivaling against the most.