UK Elections: Tories Begin Faltering in Polls

By Andrew Zirkle| LONDON

With the “snap election” called by Teresa May a mere two days away, recent polling has shown that the Conservative party may be closer to losing their majority than previously thought.

Back in mid-April, May, the Conservative Party, and the overall house of commons chose to move the election up three years with a vote of “no confidence” in the government. At the time, the Conservative Party had a near 20% lead in almost every nationwide poll over the Labor Party. Despite strong polling results early, in recent days the tables have begun to turn and the lead predicted for the Tories has slipped to 1%, according to two national polls by Survation on June 3rd. Although other polls haven’t shown the lead to be as small, it’s clear that the Labor party has been gaining quite a large bout of momentum in recent weeks, enough to make the election closer than previously expected. Although this sudden drop in polling performance, it is not completely out of the ordinary as two major terror attacks have happened in just a matter of weeks under the May administration.

Another factor pulling poll numbers down for the Conservatives is their recently released “Conservative Manifesto,” a document that outlines the platform of the Conservative Party yet contains such controversies as the “Dementia Tax” and a delayed target for eliminating the deficit. With new found hopes at Downing Street, Jeremy Corbyn and the Labor Party have begun trying to form a coalition with the Green Party and the Liberal Democrats to secure key areas necessary to prevent a Conservative Majority. As of now, the Green Party has already agreed to stand down in 29 contests and the LibDems have agreed to stand down in 2 contests in an attempt to try to prevent Conservatives from winning important precincts. Despite the increasing pressure on the Tories, many party leaders have been talking down the new alliance, dubbing it the “coalition of chaos” along with releasing official statements calling the alliance “weak and unstable.”

Although conditions may seem adverse for the Conservatives, they have one inherent advantage over the Labor coalition when it comes to polls. This advantage comes in a unique bias in Britain where Conservatives tend to underperform in polls, so much so that many pollsters even add a bonus onto Tory percentages to make up for the consistent trend. As for 2015 breakout party UKIP, they seem to have lost all of their momentum with their average dropping nearly 8% over the last year, causing them to contest over 100 fewer seats than 2015. Despite the surge in popular opinion for Labor in recent weeks, the large migration of UKIP supporters to the Conservative Party over the last year means that the Conservatives will likely still retain their majority.

You can find the seat predictions as well as the predicted popular vote by the 71Republic Team here.


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