By Owen Heimsoth | USA
The Republicans will never see the Presidency after 2024 unless they have a policy shake-up.
First off, it is clear that Republicans are already headed left, but is it on the right issues? Recently we’ve seen a change in their gun policy and some switch on healthcare policy.
Obviously, their gun policy has changed quite a bit. For example, Florida Governor Rick Scott is supporting a sweeping gun control bill after the Stoneman Douglas High School shooting in Florida, Are Scott and other Republicans moving simply to save face? This can appeal to moderate voters, but more importantly, they are alienating their base.
But are Republicans making the right policy moves? Probably not.
If the state of Texas turns blue, it could end the party’s success. Let’s look at the facts.
First off, they are already losing their grip on the state. Donald Trump won the state by about 10% in 2016, but Mitt Romney took over 15% in his 2012 losing effort.
Second, the Mexican population is about to be the majority in the state. This group voted over 65% for Hillary Clinton in 2016 according to this New York Times exit poll.
Ted Cruz looks a likely Republican win in 2018 Senate Elections and 2020 is probably safe for the Republicans. Yet, as soon as 2024, the state could start to lean blue. This NPR Politics article from 2013 predicts a 42% Hispanic plurality in the state by 2023. This could mean a Democratic lean just in time for the 2024 election.
There are very similar trends in all border states. This trend could cause Republicans to lose Arizona and Texas, as well as make New Mexico solid blue. If that were to happen, winning rust belt states would no longer matter. This would be disastrous for future Republican campaigns. If you add Texas and Arizona to Obama’s 2012 win, he could’ve been near a 400 EV total.
Of course, this is assuming that Republicans can’t make some small ideological tweaks and recruit a huge Hispanic voting base.
A Pew Hispanic study showed that 32% of Latino registered voters view themselves as conservative, 36% as moderate, and 28% as liberal. Why isn’t this voting group at least a battleground for political parties? Immigration policy.
The same study reveals that the majority of Hispanics believe that Democrats have “more concern” for them than Republicans. Republicans could likely fight for a majority of Hispanics if they simply softened on immigration policy. Without a doubt, this is one of the most important issues for Hispanic voters.
It is worth noting that whites will become the minority around 25 years from now. That turning point could be the end of the Republican party if their policies keep up. To keep any power at all, they must appeal to Hispanics by that time. While black Republicans have been slightly growing, especially among younger African-American voters, only 8% of black voters went for Trump in 2016. This is a voter block that will take a long time if ever, to go Republican. Republicans did see an 11% gain in Asian voters in 2016 from 2012 so they may be the next minority group to target as a potential voting block.
All and all, unless we see a policy change that attracts minorities, the Grand Old Party could be irrelevant as soon as 2024. A growing minority population is simply bad for the R’s as their current platform stands.